Live data — Updated every 3 minutes
Illinois 9th District,
Democratic Primary Hub
Live prediction markets, a precinct-level election model, fundraising analysis, and full election night coverage for the March 17, 2026 primary.
-- until polls close — March 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM CT
Data Points
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Across -- snapshots
Market Leader
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Loading aggregate data
Election Day
Mar 17
Democratic Primary
Total Raised
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Extrapolated to current date
Explore
Election Night
Live Model Updates at VoteHub
We're running the IL9Cast precinct model live as results come in on election night. Watch the map update in real time as precincts report -- winner projections, margin shifts, and vote totals across all 436 precincts.
Come watch with us or follow along from home.
Where: VoteHub, Evanston
When: March 17, 2026 -- Polls close at 7 PM CT
What: Live precinct map + real-time model projections
Featured Analysis
Case Study
Bid-Ask Spreads Even Moses Can't Part
A trader pushed Laura Fine to 30% on Kalshi. The spread said 14–16%. Every other tracker parroted the spike. Here's why IL9Cast didn't flinch.
Read the full analysis →About this project
IL9Cast is the independent hub for the Illinois 9th District Democratic Primary. We aggregate live prediction market data, publish a precinct-level election model, track fundraising across all candidates, and will be providing live election night coverage with real-time results and model updates.
- Manifold Markets 40% weight in aggregation formula
- Kalshi 60% weight (last price, midpoint, liquidity-adjusted)
- Precinct-Level Model 100,000 simulation runs with district-level outputs and scenario layering (view model)
- Open Data Full historical dataset available for download
