Archive · As of polls closing, March 17, 2026 · March 17, 2026
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How it did →
Final data · Frozen at polls close
Illinois 9th District,
Democratic Primary Hub
Prediction markets, a precinct-level election model and fundraising analysis for the March 17, 2026 primary.
Polls closed March 17, 2026 at 7:00 PM CT
Data Points
Across 63,378 snapshots
Market Leader
Aggregate probability
Election Day
Mar 17
Democratic Primary
Total Raised
FEC filings
Election Night
Results at VoteHub
VoteHub carried live precinct-by-precinct results on election night.
When: March 17, 2026. Polls closed at 7 PM CT
Explore
Featured Analysis
Case Study
Bid-Ask Spreads Even Moses Can't Part
A trader pushed Laura Fine to 30% on Kalshi. The spread said 14–16%. Most trackers passed the spike straight through. Here's why IL9Cast didn't flinch.
Read the full analysis →About this project
IL9Cast was the independent hub for the IL-9 Democratic primary. It aggregated prediction market data every three minutes, published a precinct-level model, and tracked fundraising across the field.
- Manifold Markets 40% weight in aggregation formula
- Kalshi 60% weight (last price, midpoint, liquidity-adjusted)
- Precinct-Level Model 100,000 simulation runs with district-level outputs and scenario layering (view model)
- Open Data Full historical dataset available for download
