Prediction Markets
Aggregated odds from multiple prediction markets
Market Trends
Snapshots from Jan 15 to 30 were lost to a data-volume failure on Railway. The chart runs from Jan 30 through polls closing at 7:00 PM CT on March 17. All times are Central.
For detailed aggregation methodology, see the Prediction Markets Aggregation section on the Methodology page.
Results Heatmap
Derived probabilities for every 1st & 2nd place finish combination
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For the full methodology details, see the Results Heatmap section on the Methodology page.
* = No Kalshi market available. Uses 100% of Manifold probability. Probabilities are lightly normalized (30% strength) to prevent excessive drift while preserving raw market values for top candidates.
Market Sources
Download Historical Data
Download the complete historical snapshot data (JSONL, gzipped)
