About

The Project

IL9Cast is a forecasting model for the Illinois 9th Congressional District Democratic Primary, scheduled for March 17, 2026. This project aims to provide real-time probability estimates for each candidate based on polling data, fundraising reports, and historical trends.

Inspiration

This model is inspired by the pioneering work of election forecasters including:

• Nate Silver - Creator of FiveThirtyEight and modern election forecasting
• 538 - The original data-driven election forecast site
• The Silver Bulletin - Nate Silver's current forecasting publication
• Galen Druke - Podcast host and election analyst

About the Creator

Ryan McComb is a student at ETHS with an interest in data science, political analysis, and civic engagement. This project was created as an educational exercise in statistical modeling and web development.