Prediction Markets (Archived)
Weighted aggregation of Manifold Markets & Kalshi through the March 17, 2026 primary
Manifold Markets stopped trading as polls closed. Final odds reflect Kalshi data only.
Market Trends
We have JSONL data upon request from Jan 15 to 30, but some AWS volume issues prevented us from displaying it. The graph has data from Jan 30 and on. All times displayed in Central Time (CT).
For detailed aggregation methodology, see the Prediction Markets Aggregation section on the Methodology page.
Results Heatmap
Derived probabilities for every 1st & 2nd place finish combination
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For the full methodology details, see the Results Heatmap section on the Methodology page.
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* = No Kalshi market available. Uses 100% of Manifold probability. Probabilities are lightly normalized (30% strength) to prevent excessive drift while preserving raw market values for top candidates.
Market Sources
Email Alerts
Swing alerts and daily summaries are no longer sent — the race was called on March 17, 2026. Thanks to everyone who subscribed while the site was live.
Download Historical Data
Download the complete historical snapshot data in your preferred format
