Precinct Model
This interactive map is best viewed on a desktop or tablet.
Biss
77.2%
Abughazaleh
15.6%
Fine
7.2%
While Biss is clearly in the lead, the variance in this race is high. With a large undecided electorate and wide polling uncertainty, the outcome could swing significantly on election day. To be clear, this is not a cop-out -- the model genuinely reflects a race with massive uncertainty baked in.
Average Vote Share
Latest Independent Poll
Public Policy Polling / Evanston Roundtable · February 20-21, 2026 · n=501 likely voters
Biss
24%
Undecided
22%
Abughazaleh
17%
Fine
16%
Simmons
6%
Andrew
5%
Amiwala
4%
Huynh
2%
First non-affiliated poll of the race -- no candidate or party commissioned it. This poll carries 73% of the weight in the model's polling targets.
Precinct Map
Click a precinct to inspect detailed results. Switch layers to explore different views.
Map Layer
Loading precinct data...
Competitiveness Breakdown
Top 10 Battleground Precincts
Tightest margins across the district.
| Precinct | Winner | Runner-Up | Margin | Biss Win % | Fine Win % | Abu. Win % |
|---|
All Precincts
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Runner-Up | Biss % | Fine % | Abu. % | Sim. % | And. % | Ami. % | Huy. % | Biss Win | Fine Win | Abu. Win | '24 Dem | '24 Total |
|---|
Model Visualizations
Key outputs from the simulation. Click any chart to view full size.
Vote Share Confidence Intervals (50% / 90%)
Simulated Vote Share Distributions
Biss vs Abughazaleh: Head-to-Head Margin
Winning Margin Distribution
Win Probability by Turnout Quintile
Turnout vs Vote Share
Precinct-Level Vote Share Distribution
Precinct Leaders: Three-Way Scatter
Biss / Kat / Fine by Region
Kat Advantage vs Precinct Partisanship
Abughazaleh Support by Youth Share
Win Rates by County/Area
Precinct Competitiveness Histogram
