Precinct Model
How the Model Performed
Final results came in on March 17, 2026. Here's how the pre-election model's predictions compared to the actual vote.
The model assigned Daniel Biss a 77.2% chance of winning the primary. He won with 29.6% of the vote in a 15-candidate field.
The model called the correct winner, placed all three top finishers in the correct order, and landed within roughly two percentage points on every top-three vote share. Full 15-candidate breakdown wasn't cleanly available from open sources at time of archive; the remaining candidates split the final ~24%.
For a longer retrospective on what worked, what didn't, and what it was like to build this, read the IL9Cast postmortem on mccomb.ca.
Sections below are the original pre-election forecast, preserved as published on March 5, 2026.
Average Vote Share
Latest Independent Poll
Public Policy Polling / Evanston Roundtable · February 20-21, 2026 · n=501 likely voters
First non-affiliated poll of the race -- no candidate or party commissioned it. This poll carries 73% of the weight in the model's polling targets.
Precinct Map
Click a precinct to inspect detailed results. Switch layers to explore different views.
Competitiveness Breakdown
Top 10 Battleground Precincts
Tightest margins across the district.
| Precinct | Winner | Runner-Up | Margin | Biss Win % | Fine Win % | Abu. Win % |
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All Precincts
| Precinct | Winner | Margin | Runner-Up | Biss % | Fine % | Abu. % | Sim. % | And. % | Ami. % | Huy. % | Biss Win | Fine Win | Abu. Win | '24 Dem | '24 Total |
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Model Visualizations
Key outputs from the simulation. Click any chart to view full size.
